Nobody would go so far as claim that the ongoing economic struggles are “good” for Trump, obviously. But what’s remarkable is how little evidence there is that the economy is harming him. What ultimately makes Biden the clear favourite still is not Americans’ economic pain, but Trump’s handling of the pandemic and personal conduct.
Even so, in the past month or so Trump has made up some ground. The Real Clear Politics polling averages show a tightening through July and August, as violence and protests in Democratic cities has given Trump the opportunity to declare himself the “law and order” candidate.
Covid-19 has rocked dense metropolitan areas where professionals live and spend. The fact rents are down for single-bedroom apartments by 10pc or more in New York, San Francisco, Washington DC, and San Jose, gives an indicator of the economic carnage hitting cities.
Yet violent protests alongside Black Lives Matter and Antifa activity in many cities has allowed Trump to highlight the role of lawlessness in making cities unpleasant places to be right now. The more radical elements on the streets gave the president the chance to reframe himself as the defender of American values, norms, and order, as opposed to the president who has himself played fast and loose with the rule of law and exacerbated divisions.
As a result, Trump is still in this race and it is extraordinary that such a significant economic downturn appears to be putting so little drag on his prospects. What’s more, the timing of official statistics could give the president a final, late economic election boost too.
One consequence of a sharp contraction induced by vast shutdowns in second quarter will be a large rebound in the third quarter. Though this will be far from a full recovery, Trump will feasibly be able to say that the quarter represents the fastest growth on record, just days before polling day.
His narrative will then be: why risk the recovery?
Ryan Bourne holds the R Evan Scharf chair for the public understanding of economics at the Cato Institute