US-China tensions detonate into global chip battle

Linda J. Dodson

Meanwhile, amid the uncertainty created by political manoeuvring, the semiconductor industry waits and prepares. According to Dan Hutcheson, chief executive of semiconductor market researcher VLSI Research, the ban on Huawei has triggered a large inventory backlog in the entire chip industry.

He also said that the planned government assistance to try to encourage US manufacturers to build chip factories in America fell far short of what was needed.

A bi-partisan committee has proposed $28bn (£21bn) in funding to encourage chip plants to be built on home ground – but building just one plant can cost upwards of $15bn.

Hutcheson thinks this needs to be doubled to have any major impact. So, it seems unlikely to be a knockout blow in Washington’s attempts to lure the centre of global chip manufacturing away from Asia and into the US.

Of course, US chip suppliers could see a boost in demand if sanctions are tightened against China. However, the bigger issue will be “if they get locked out of China’s market, while the door remains open for other countries”, Hutcheson believes.

So, while officials in Beijing are busy formulating the hard details of the country’s next five-year plan – essentially “a super-policy package” that identifies and sets targets for strategically important projects – Washington is distracted by campaigning for November’s presidential election.

The American strategy of trying to starve the Chinese industry of components and funding is driving a new technological race between global powers with a conflicting ideology.

This may ultimately accelerate technological development, but it will certainly push us closer to a major digital divide between East and West. The global internet appears to be getting more fractured by the week.

 

Garry White is chief investment commentator at wealth management company Charles Stanley

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