Why Tuesday’s unemployment figures will tell investors what to buy

Linda J. Dodson

Tuesday August 11: Derwent London, first-half results

With a broad spread of tenants between the media industry, corporate head offices and retail and leisure sites, Derwent London looks a good litmus test of how the capital’s commercial property landlords are faring during the pandemic.

The real estate investment trust’s largest tenants include the Government, Burberry, Expedia, Publicis, WPP, Ticketmaster and Sony Pictures. It has a £5.5 billion portfolio split across the West End of London (63pc) and borders of the City of London (35pc).

In July, Derwent revealed it had received 81pc of the rent due in the first three months of 2020 and 70pc due in the second quarer. Some 9pc more was due to come, 9pc were on payment plans, 4pc had been waived and 8pc was outstanding. Three-quarters of all office payments had been received against just one-quarter for retail and hospitality.

The vacancy rate will be an area of interest which ended 2019 at just 0.8pc. A sharp rise will signal problems. Investors should look for an update on Derwent London’s major developments – Charlotte Street W1, The Featherstone Building EC1 and Soho Place W1 were 72pc pre-let at the end of 2019. They were due for completion in 2020, 2022 and 2022 respectively.

Wednesday August 12: Admiral, first-half results

Best known for its Admiral, Elephant and Diamond brands and price comparison site confused.com, the business has said very little so far this year.

It has created a picture of financial strength and confidence in the underlying business during lockdown. The company suspended its usual annual special dividend and then gave £25 rebate to car insurance customers – worth some £110m. It also committed to price cuts worth £80m and helped customers struggling with monthly payments.

Admiral noted it had kept all staff on full pay and had not used any of the Government’s support schemes. Chief executive David Stevens said the company plans to pay that missing special dividend this year – analysts have pencilled in a total payment of 136p per share for 2020 giving a yield of more than 5.5pc.

Investors should look for comments on pricing and costs and cash management as they assess the factors behind the headline pre-tax profit and dividend numbers. This will help the judge what impact, if any, they are having.

Other news to watch

Tuesday August 11: First-half results from Prudential, InterContinental Hotels, Gamesys and Domino’s Pizza

Wednesday August 12: First-half results from Spirax-Sarco Engineering, Just Eat Takeaway.com, Avast, Balfour Beatty UK GDP growth data

Thursday August 13: First-half results from GVC, Renishaw and National Express.  Trading statement from TUI

Russ Mould is investment director at AJ Bell

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