Putting our economy into deep freeze comes with health risks too
The debate over ‘lives versus livelihoods’ will become more intense as pressure grows to ease this deeply damaging lockdown
This Easter Bank Holiday weekend is, perhaps, the bleakest moment so far of this national health scare – and not only because we’re cooped up amid tortuously good weather. With immunity testing weeks away, and no vaccine in sight, there’s little to celebrate.
As our virus-related, daily, death rate approaches one thousand, and with the Prime Minister’s health still in the balance, there’s a sense of barely suppressed desperation. This lockdown could end, though – or be partially lifted – much sooner than is widely understood. One reason is that, as the economic damage gets worse, the political debate is shifting.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), for instance, published a study highlighting that, “in the medium and longer term, the economic downturn itself will have persistent negative health effects”.
The IFS cites evidence the recession after the 2008 financial crisis “could have resulted in an additional 900,000 people of working age suffering from chronic health conditions, including mental health”. While this virus kills people, economic collapses also kill people – while stymying the wealth generation needed to underpin the NHS.
What’s more, the impact of this lockdown is deeply iniquitous. For well-off professionals who can work from home, and those with gardens, forced isolation is more financially and psychologically manageable. Manual workers, and those in cramped accommodation, are less fortunate. “Effects will also vary across the country as some industries (and thus areas) are hit harder by social distancing and the associated economic downturn,” the IFS adds.
The UK economy is now rapidly shrinking, with businesses shuttered and consumer spending in freefall. The National Institute for Economic and Social Research says GDP could contract 25pc during the second quarter of 2020 – faster than after 2008 or, indeed, during the Great Depression of the Thirties.
